4/11/16 – We asked for an $18 trillion loan. No one responded. At the time the market PE was approximately 16x current earnings or an E/P earnings yield of 6.25% plus a dividend of 2%.
8/12/16 – The DOW was at 18,473 – 450 times its original value of 40.94 in 1896.
11/10/16 – We suggested a stock market up 30% is possible.
Today, the market is approximately 16x earnings, the DOW is hundreds of times higher than 1896, and the stock market is up approximately 30%.
The stock market (S&P 500) is a mostly well diversified representation of only successful companies. People would not want to buy unsuccessful companies. So, unsuccessful companies are eventually eliminated from the index. The S&P 500 is the daily market cap weighted representation of perceived value by investors. The S&P 500 is also a representation of projected future profits and cash flow. The S&P 500 also represents the hope and reality of the successful implementation of technology and innovation for profit.
We are optimistic and hopeful that, as current uncertainty goes away and gets replaced with new ones, the market will continue to climb the wall of worry, just like it has done for over a 100 years, and reward investors and business owners for the risk of investing in and building a successful business.